Comparative draft success in the AFC West

There are two ways to build a team in the NFL, through the draft or through free agency. Most teams use some of both, but the teams that are “good” at drafting don’t have to spend as much on free agents. They also tend to retain the good draftees that they have developed at a higher rate once their rookie contracts are done.

The 2022 draft for the Denver Broncos looks great so far, but more writers agree that you need three NFL seasons to fully evaluate a draft. That being said, we will look at the 2020, 2021 and 2022 drafts in this with the caveat that there could still be players from the 2020 or 2021 drafts who haven’t developed.

This work will focus on the AFC West so that we can see how the Broncos compare to the rest of the division over the last ten drafts (2013-2022). The analysis will be done by looking at how much draft capital each team has had to spend and how much return they have gotten on that capital. So let’s begin with the Chiefs.

Keep in mind that doing this analysis in the middle of a season confounds things because of how you treat the current season. I am choosing to include this season even though AV values for each player this season will not be given out until after the season is done.

Chiefs

They have had 72 picks over the last ten drafts and they have had 360.3 units of draft capital to spend on those picks (5.0 per pick). They had 10 picks in 2022. 29 of those 62 have spent at least one season as a primary starter for a team in the NFL at their position. In terms of starter-years, Eric Fisher and Travis Kelce both have eight, while Chris Jones, Mitch Morse and Zach Fulton have six. In terms of weighted approximate value per year in the league, wAV/yr, their ten best picks are shown below

The average wAV/yr for their 62 picks is 2.6. Their picks have been selected first team All-Pro nine times and Pro-Bowl 29 times. The 72 picks have also accounted for 92 starter-years and have started 1719 games or 24 games per pick.

Four guys drafted by the Chiefs of their 62 from 2013-2021 did not ever make an NFL roster.

Chargers

The chargers have had 69 picks over the last ten drafts and have spent 422.2 units of capital on them - 6.1 per pick. Their 10 best picks in terms of value per season are shown below - 2022 draftees excluded.

The Chargers drafted ten players in 2020. The 59 players that they took 2013-2021 have an average wAV/yr of 1.6. They have been selected first team All-Pro twice, to the Pro Bowl 17 times and had 82 starter-years between them. They have started 1472 games between them. The average Charger draftee over the last ten drafts has had a 3.3 year NFL career.

Like the Chiefs, the Chargers also have four players that they drafted 2013-2021 that never made an NFL roster.

Raiders

The Raiders have had 82 picks over the past ten drafts and have spent 490.5 units of draft capital on them (6.0 per pick). They only had six picks in the 2022 draft. Excluding the 2022 picks they have had 3.9 year careers on average. Their ten best picks in terms of wAV/yr are below.

Their 76 picks 2013-2021 have generated 92 starter-years, 17 Pro Bowl selections and 3 first team AP AllPro selections. The average wAV/yr is 2.1. They have started 1707 games or 21 games per pick.

The Raiders have six picks during this time frame that never made an NFL roster.

The Raiders have also had some very high profile failures from the recent early draft picks. Their first round pick from 2021, Alex Leatherwood is no longer on the team. Their two first round picks from 2020 are no longer on the team - Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette - and both are currently out of the league. They also just released one of the three players they selected in the first round of 2019, Johnathan Abrams. Their other two first rounders from that season are still on the team although Clelin Ferrell is not a starter. Their 2018 first round pick, Kolton Miller, has been a solid starter for them at OT since they drafted him, but their first round pick in 2017 only lasted three seasons in the NFL because of heart problems. Their failure rate on first round picks recently has been astoundingly high. I guess they should be glad that they didn’t have a first or second round pick in 2022.

Broncos

The Broncos have had 83 picks over the last ten drafts and have had 423.1 units of capital to spend on them (5.1 per pick). The average years in the league for Bronco draft picks 2013-2021 is 3.8. The Broncos have no first team AllPro selections, only three first team Pro Bowl selections and 68 starter-years. Justin Simmons was second team AllPro in both 2019 and 2021. Garett Bolles was also second team AllPro in 2020. The top 10 by wAv/yr are shown below.

The three Pro Bowl selections were by Simmons, Bradley Chubb and Courtland Sutton.

I think the Patrick Surtain could make first team All Pro this season. If the Broncos turn things around and have a winning season, it would go a long way to helping his cause as such. It’s easier to get recognized as one of the best at your position if you are on national TV regularly.

The average weighted AV per year for Bronco draftees 2013-2021 is 1.8. Bronco draftees over the last ten drafts have started 1380 NFL games - only 17 per draftee.

Only four Bronco draftees during this time failed to make an NFL roster.

As you can see in the table below, the Broncos have had the worst draft success in the AFCW over the past ten drafts, by almost every metric. Of course, some of the success that drafted players have had has been for teams that did not draft them, but we are giving the draft team credit for drafting that player (and developing him).

The Broncos appear to have really drafted well in the past two drafts though. Five of the nine guys that the Broncos took this year are already significant contributors to the 2022 team (Nik Bonitto, Greg Dulcich, Damarri Mathis, Montrell Washington and Matt Henningsen) and all but Faion Hicks have played at least a few snaps. In terms of the 2021 draft - Surtain, Javonte Williams, Quinn Meinerz, Baron Browning, and Caden Sterns have all been starters for the Broncos at some point if they are not currently and Jonathan Cooper has played a minor role this year that could expand if Randy Gregory doesn’t get healthy soon. One of the other four 2021 draftees, Kary Vincent Jr, was traded to the Eagles last season for draft picks.

While the Broncos drafted relatively poorly over 2013-2020, the last two drafts have been strong and could look even better in a year or two.