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Broncos Over/Under Fantasy Football Projections

Predicting whether certain players in the Broncos-Chiefs matchup this Sunday will get over or under their projected fantasy points.

Denver Broncos v Baltimore Ravens Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

The following point projections are from ESPN Fantasy Football.

Patrick Mahomes: 19.6 points – UNDER

I think this game will be a lower scoring game than people think, and the Broncos defense will make life hard on this Mahomes offense at times. It’s well-known at this point in the season that the Broncos have an elite pass defense and yes that’s never going to stop Mahomes from slinging it. But this secondary might cause Andy Reid to go after the weaker part of the Broncos defense, which is its run defense allowing 120 rushing yards per game. Mahomes will throw inevitably throw for 250-300 yards, but it’s matter of if the Broncos can force the Chiefs to run it more frequently instead of using Mahomes’ arm. This will will in turn will keep Mahomes’ point total down under 20.

Russell Wilson: 14.7 points – UNDER

During this 4 game losing streak, Russ has yet to put up over 14.7 points, putting up 14.2 against the Titans, 10.6 against the Raiders, 8.4 against Carolina, and 9.6 last week against the Ravens. The Chiefs on paper don’t have the stoutest defense, but they are better than people think with one of the best defensive lines in football and have the ability to make veteran in game adjustments to give opposing offenses different looks.

Travis Kelce: 13.9 points - OVER

Kelce continues to impress each year with his ability to read and find the soft spot in the defenses’ zone. With Surtain likely to be on Juju Smith-Schuster most of the game, Kelce will find himself plenty of opportunities to work his magic with Mahomes back to pass. Even though Kelce was stumped finding the end zone last week against the Bengals, I believe his is due for a touchdown this week that will bump him over his projected total.

Jerry Jeudy: 11.2 points – UNDER

A Broncos skill player to get double digit fantasy points? I don’t think so. Even with Sutton doubtful for the matchup, slating Jeudy for a higher workload on Sunday, it is unlikely the Broncos turn it around and give another wide receiver double digit fantasy points other than Sutton this season. In this case with how the Broncos offense has gone this year, I have to see it to believe it.

Denver Broncos v Baltimore Ravens Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

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