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Broncos’ strength of schedule is reasonable

The Denver Broncos get a solid break on the strength of schedule and it couldn’t have come at a better time.

The Denver Broncos regular season schedule has been released and it looks like they will have a fairly benign strength of schedule. Based on last seasons’ records, the Broncos have the 15th strongest strength of schedule with a winning percentage just above .500 at .509.

That tops all other AFC West teams who ended up with Top 10 strength of schedules across the board in the division. Hopefully that would give Denver a bit of an edge in 2022.

NFL Strength of Schedule 2022

Rank Team Combined Record 2021 Win %
Rank Team Combined Record 2021 Win %
1 Rams 164-125-0 0.567
2 Cardinals 157-132-0 0.543
3 Bengals 154-133-2 0.536
4 Buccaneers 154-134-1 0.535
T-5 49ers 154-135-0 0.533
T-5 Chiefs 154-135-0 0.533
T-7 Raiders 152-136-1 0.528
T-7 Saints 152-136-1 0.528
9 Falcons 151-137-1 0.524
10 Chargers 150-139-0 0.519
11 Seahawks 149-139-1 0.517
T-12 Steelers 148-141-0 0.512
T-12 Panthers 147-140-2 0.512
T-12 Bills 147-140-2 0.512
15 Broncos 147-142-0 0.509
16 Patriots 143-144-2 0.498
T-17 Jets 142-145-2 0.495
T-17 Browns 142-145-2 0.495
19 Texans 141-148-0 0.488
20 Vikings 139-148-2 0.484
21 Dolphins 138-149-2 0.481
22 Packers 137-150-2 0.478
23 Ravens 136-151-2 0.474
T-24 Bears 135-152-2 0.471
T-24 Titans 136-153-0 0.471
T-26 Jaguars 135-153-1 0.469
T-26 Colts 135-153-1 0.469
28 Lions 135-154-0 0.467
29 Giants 134-154-1 0.465
30 Eagles 133-154-2 0.464
T-31 Commanders 133-155-1 0.462
T-31 Cowboys 133-155-1 0.462

However, another way to look at strength of schedules is based on analytical projected win totals for each team in 2022. A breakdown of projected win totals from Sharpe Football Analysis drastically changes the strength of schedule for most teams in the AFC West. The Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Las Vegas Raiders all shot up to the Top 3, with the Chiefs at an extreme disadvantage in 2022. Meanwhile, the Broncos got a break and remain solidly in the middle of the pack.

This infographic from Sharp Football Analysis displays where these teams fall based on their forecasted win totals:

Sharpe Football Analysis

I think I would trust a strength of schedule based on something that is trying to project win totals in 2022 over the charts based on last seasons’ records. Either way, Denver appears to have an easier path to winning games in 2022 and has a slight to large advantage over their AFC West rivals this season.

In fact, the Broncos have a very good chance to come out of their first 11 games with a solid record. Their strength of schedule early on is a bit of cake walk, but their final six games will be a brutal test of this Russell Wilson-led team. If they come out with 1-2 losses ahead of that six game stretch, then they will be in position to seriously challenge for the AFC West title.

What do you all think of the Broncos’ strength of schedule heading into the 2022 regular season?