Football Outsiders’ projects Broncos as solid playoff contender in AFC

The Denver Broncos are back to relevancy after a long six year period of wandering through quarterback purgatory, but just how good will they be in 2022? In my final question for Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders, I asked him where their DVOA calculations put Denver for win totals this seasons.

MHR: Can you give us your season predictions for the Broncos?

MIKE TANIER: The Broncos will have the fourth-best offense in the NFL and the 29th best defense. With a tough division but a manageable out-of-division schedule, they will end up around 9.3 wins, which will probably place them in the Wild Card hunt. If that defensive projection sounds pessimistic, you must also admit that the offensive projection sounds a tad optimistic.

Their system projects around 9 wins for the Broncos in 2022 and while that sounds low its really not as the top teams usually end up in the lower 10-11 win range. Their 9.3 win total projection puts Denver solidly in the Wild Card range of playoff teams in the AFC.

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Looking over the Broncos 2022 schedule, it really is going to be a tale of two seasons. They have four prime time games in the first six weeks, but the schedule is rather soft until about Week 13. If they split games with playoff contenders until then, Denver could realistically come out with an 8-3 record heading into a brutal final six game stretch where they will be playing playoff contenders every week.

If they split those games, then they’d be a little above the FO win total projection. However, there is always a chance for them to finish 9-8 given how tough that final stretch is. I still think they come out with 10-11 wins. Where do you think Denver will end up?

Football Outsiders has released their 2022 Almanac, which you can purchase on their website (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/subscribe) or from their Amazon store (https://a.co/d/3fzpGZv).

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