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Peyton Manning knew it.
Troy Aikman knew it.
Every Twitter armchair coach knew it.
You DO NOT sign Russell Wilson to be your signal caller and then take the ball out of his hands at the end of the game on a 4th-and-5 to kick what would tie for the second-longest field goal in NFL history.
Peyton was all of us pic.twitter.com/X99gjHN00B
— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) September 13, 2022
Hackett had 2 options:
— Chris Raybon (@ChrisRaybon) September 13, 2022
1. Ask a guy who had already thrown for 340 yards to throw for 5 more.
2. Ask a guy whose career-long FG was 61 to make from 64.
He chose Option No. 2.
This will be hard to live down.
Brandon McManus misses from 64 yards and #Broncos lose by 1. Brandon McManus is now 1-of-8 on FG of 60+ yards in his career. NFL teams converted 49 percent of the time last season on fourth-and-5.
— Ed Werder (@WerderEdESPN) September 13, 2022
That's the thing: the clock management is fine if you're playing for a field goal there. But WHY play for a 64 yard field goal over a 4th & 5? It's not like it was 4th & 18 or something
— Scott Olson (@RealScottOlson) September 13, 2022
This dude trusted some kicker more than he trusted Russell Wilson, a certain Hall of Famer, a franchise QB the franchise just gave up a bundle to get? “Dumb” doesn’t begin to describe how moronic this decision was/is.
— Michael Wilbon (@RealMikeWilbon) September 13, 2022
There were several things wrong with that final play.
For one, Hackett/Wilson took way too long to decide to stop the clock. Wandering around the field, Wilson wasted nearly 30 seconds before he called the timeout.
Instead they could have stopped the clock with 45 seconds to go, gone to the line for another play to try and draw the Seahawks offsides. If it doesn’t work, call timeout, go to the sideline and come up with a good 4th-and-5 play.
Denver traded picks for Russ
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 13, 2022
then Denver gave Russ $242,500,000
then Denver put the game on the leg of a kicker to make a 64-yard FG
instead of letting Russ move the team closer with 1:03 AND a timeout in their pocket
an epic failure of situational coaching & game management
If Hackett was sold on kicking the ball, why not then let the clock run all the way down so as not to leave anything on the clock after the kick>?
Finally - and most importantly - WHY ARE YOU EVEN KICKING THE BALL???
I can sort of get it. If there’s a kicker out there I’d trust to make a record-tying field goal, it would be Brandon McManus. And I do hope he gets to go for the record before he retires from the NFL.
But in this scenario, the odds are much greater to get the first down with a quarterback like Wilson - one of the winningest QBs in the fourth quarter - than hope for three in a record-long kick.
Per @pfref:
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) September 13, 2022
Since 1994, teams down one score in the final 3 minutes that go for it on fourth-and-5 convert 46.5% of the time.
Meanwhile, just 20.5% of all 60+ field-goal attempts since 1994 were successful.
That and more in the on-field #DENvsSEA wrap for @1043TheFan: pic.twitter.com/eZtZTLswoK
No. It's on the outer edge of his in-game distances made.
— Doctor of Words (and tights) (@docllv) September 13, 2022
But 4th-and-5 is absolutely in Russ Wilson's range. https://t.co/2yNhXNJrAZ
From our win probability calculator, @BryKno ran this:
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) September 13, 2022
Pass: 36.1% WP
Field Goal: 7.4% WP
Complete insanity.
MHR’s Jeffrey Essary was pretty much beside himself with this decision by the offense.
And despite all the other mistakes on the night - missed tackles, fumbled balls at the goal line, poor communication, absurd number of penalties - Essary was most incensed because it’s the one thing that isn’t so obviously going to be improved.
Two fumbled balls on back-to-back drives coming down to 4th-and-goal at the 1 probably never happens again.
- 187 pre-snap penalties shouldn’t happen again.
- Missing so many tackles already got cleaned up by second half.
- But making a better split-second decision when the game is on the line? No guarantees.
“FELT” ???
— Jeffrey Essary (@JeffreyEssary) September 13, 2022
This is why in modern day football we have statistics and probabilities from years and years of data that give you the best % option.
But ya let’s go with your feeling. The feeling you developed in *checks notes* your first ever game as a head coach….. https://t.co/DD6FLePReN
But hindsight is 20/20 and while Russ Wilson said in his post-game presser he supports the decision, Brandon McManus just said he needs to make that kick.
“We said, where can you make it from tonight, and he said ‘46 left hash.’ I think we were on the 46,” Wilson said. “I think he has the leg for it for sure. I believe in what we’re doing. Believe in everything, and any time you can try to find a way to make a play on fourth and five, that’s great too. Also, I don’t think it was the wrong decision. I think he can make it.”
46 yard line left hash was my line to get to. They got it there. Need to make the kick
— Brandon McManus (@thekidmcmanus) September 13, 2022
Can’t fumble twice at the goal line.
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) September 13, 2022
Can’t get just 6 of a possible 28 points in the red zone.
Can’t commit a dozen penalties.
Can’t dawdle in two-minute with a deficit.
Poll
Which ‘mistake’ last night is the most worrisome to you?
This poll is closed
-
28%
RB fumbles at the goal line (x2)
(641 votes) -
18%
12 penalties for 106 yards
(409 votes) -
2%
Missed tackles
(65 votes) -
50%
Decision to kick FG at end of game
(1125 votes)
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