According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metrics, the Denver Broncos rank just outside the Top 10 in Total DVOA. Those rankings are powered by a 5th overall rating by the defense, a middling offense and a pretty bad special teams.
TOTAL DVOA: 17.5% (11th)
OFFENSIVE VOA: 0.1% (14th)
DEFENSIVE VOA: 21.2% (5th)
ST DVOA: -3.8% (26th)
This pretty much aligns with what we all would probably agree to. The offense, while very good between the 20s, has offset the good with terrible red zone efficiency. That should put them in the middle of the pack overall. As for special teams, it has not been pretty. The only reason they are 1-1 at this point has been through the very good defensive effort from Defensive Coordinator Ejiro Evero’s guys.
However, the defense also faced two offenses likely heading towards the bottom of offensive VOA by the end of the season. The real test for them begins in Week 3 against a much better San Francisco 49ers offense. The 49ers also rank slightly above Denver in total DVOA at 20.2%.
If the Broncos offense ever need to wake up and ball out it would be this weekend. If they can balance things out offensively and defensively, they will move up the DVOA charts rapidly. Although, I don’t think any teams will catch the Buffalo Bills for a while. They are 1, 1, and 2 ranked in all three categories and almost double-up the total DVOA of the second place team on the list.
One game at a time, though. Get a win this weekend and those early negative narratives from the first two games begin to change rapidly.