Stats the way I like it: Broncos stat review for Week 10

The Denver Broncos have now won three straight, something that the team has not done since the start of the 2021 season. They have also just beaten two teams with winning records, one of whom is the defending Super Bowl champs and the other who has made the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. The last time the Broncos beat two teams in a row who finished the season with winning records was 2018 (this assumed that Buffalo Bills finish the season with a winning record).

The 2018 Broncos started the season by beating the beat the Chargers and Steelers in weeks 11 and 12 (they finished 12-4 and 9-6-1 respectively). Prior to that you have to go back to 2014 to find a season where the Broncos beat two “good” teams in back-to-back weeks. The 2015 team didn’t do that until they got to the playoffs. That 2014 team opened the season with wins over four straight teams that finished with winning records:

Colts 11-5, Chiefs 9-7, Seahawks 12-4, Cardinals 11-5

Suffice it to say that the Broncos have not had many instances of beating “winning” teams in back-to-back weeks recently. Seven straight years of missing the playoffs will do that.

The good news is that the Broncos have brought hope to the Denver fanbase by going 4-2 after starting 0-3. The defense has turned it around dramatically (see my tweet)

Many factors have contributed to this defensive turnaround, but the biggest was the return of both Josey Jewell and Justin Simmons. Simmons missed all of game three and four. Jewell missed most of game three and all of game four. The Broncos allowed 98 points in those two games and have allowed 150 in the other seven. That’s 49 points per game allowed when Jewell and Simmons are out and 21.4 when they are playing.

In those two games the Broncos allowed 1197 yards on 145 plays (8.26 YPP or close to double the league average). In the other seven games the team has allowed 5.77 YPP, still not good, but much better than 8.3.

Counting 4th down stops, the defense has forced eleven turnovers during this three game win streak. That’s more than half of the total that the defense forced all of last season (23). The last time the Broncos forced four or more (official) turnovers in back-to-back games was in the playoffs after the 1998 season when they forced six against the Jets in the AFCC and four against the Falcons in the Super Bowl.

Forcing turnovers is nice, but it tends to be unsustainable in the modern NFL.

The defense is going to need to maintain its high level of play as the Broncos have a remaining schedule that appears very tough (current record):

1. Vikings 6-4
2. Browns 6-3
3. @ Texans 5-4
4. @ Chargers 4-5
5. @ Lions 7-2
6. Patriots 2-8
7. Chargers 4-5
8. @ Raiders 5-5

While that is only a combined 39-36 record, only the Patriots game is a definite win at this point (dang, that feels good to type).

The defense is still last in the league in points allowed per game at 27.6 and last in the league at yards allowed per play at 6.41.

With continued good play the defense can finish not last in both stats by season’s end, but that means the Commanders and Panthers need to continue giving up lots of points and the Bengals need to continue giving up plenty of yards per play. The Bengals are currently 31st in YPP allowed at 6.08.

At least the Bronco defense is no longer worst in history in YPP allowed. That should stay with the 2015 Saints who allowed 6.63 YPP. Of course of all the teams who have allowed 6.10 or more YPP in a season only four of 37 have had a winning record at season’s end.

The 2011 Packers (15-1) and Patriots (13-3), the 2013 Chargers (9-7) and the 2022 Lions (9-8).

The Bronco defense is also currently last (by a large margin) in terms of rushing yards allowed per carry (5.57). The Bengals are currently second worst allowing 5.05 YPC. The Bears defense leads the league at 3.2.