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Stats the way I like it: Broncos stat review for Week 10

What do the numbers say about the Denver Broncos that seemingly has turned things around?

Syndication: Democrat and Chronicle Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Denver Broncos have now won three straight, something that the team has not done since the start of the 2021 season. They have also just beaten two teams with winning records, one of whom is the defending Super Bowl champs and the other who has made the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. The last time the Broncos beat two teams in a row who finished the season with winning records was 2018 (this assumed that Buffalo Bills finish the season with a winning record).

The 2018 Broncos started the season by beating the beat the Chargers and Steelers in weeks 11 and 12 (they finished 12-4 and 9-6-1 respectively). Prior to that you have to go back to 2014 to find a season where the Broncos beat two “good” teams in back-to-back weeks. The 2015 team didn’t do that until they got to the playoffs. That 2014 team opened the season with wins over four straight teams that finished with winning records:

Colts 11-5, Chiefs 9-7, Seahawks 12-4, Cardinals 11-5

Suffice it to say that the Broncos have not had many instances of beating “winning” teams in back-to-back weeks recently. Seven straight years of missing the playoffs will do that.

The good news is that the Broncos have brought hope to the Denver fanbase by going 4-2 after starting 0-3. The defense has turned it around dramatically (see my tweet)

Many factors have contributed to this defensive turnaround, but the biggest was the return of both Josey Jewell and Justin Simmons. Simmons missed all of game three and four. Jewell missed most of game three and all of game four. The Broncos allowed 98 points in those two games and have allowed 150 in the other seven. That’s 49 points per game allowed when Jewell and Simmons are out and 21.4 when they are playing.

In those two games the Broncos allowed 1197 yards on 145 plays (8.26 YPP or close to double the league average). In the other seven games the team has allowed 5.77 YPP, still not good, but much better than 8.3.

Counting 4th down stops, the defense has forced eleven turnovers during this three game win streak. That’s more than half of the total that the defense forced all of last season (23). The last time the Broncos forced four or more (official) turnovers in back-to-back games was in the playoffs after the 1998 season when they forced six against the Jets in the AFCC and four against the Falcons in the Super Bowl.

Forcing turnovers is nice, but it tends to be unsustainable in the modern NFL.

The defense is going to need to maintain its high level of play as the Broncos have a remaining schedule that appears very tough (current record):

  1. Vikings 6-4
  2. Browns 6-3
  3. @ Texans 5-4
  4. @ Chargers 4-5
  5. @ Lions 7-2
  6. Patriots 2-8
  7. Chargers 4-5
  8. @ Raiders 5-5

While that is only a combined 39-36 record, only the Patriots game is a definite win at this point (dang, that feels good to type).

The defense is still last in the league in points allowed per game at 27.6 and last in the league at yards allowed per play at 6.41.

Rk Tm G PA PPG Yds Ply Y/P
1 Baltimore Ravens 10 157 15.7 2736 654 4.18
2 Kansas City Chiefs 9 143 15.9 2594 543 4.78
3 San Francisco 49ers 9 143 15.9 2741 553 4.96
4 Dallas Cowboys 9 165 18.3 2476 519 4.77
5 Buffalo Bills 10 184 18.4 3306 611 5.41
6 Cleveland Browns 9 170 18.9 2184 482 4.53
7 New York Jets 9 172 19.1 2770 600 4.62
8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 173 19.2 3187 575 5.54
9 New Orleans Saints 10 198 19.8 3127 619 5.05
10 Tennessee Titans 9 180 20.0 3042 565 5.38
11 Green Bay Packers 9 182 20.2 2885 584 4.94
12 Pittsburgh Steelers 9 182 20.2 3417 610 5.60
13 Las Vegas Raiders 10 205 20.5 3343 643 5.20
14 Minnesota Vikings 10 209 20.9 3232 647 5.00
15 Jacksonville Jaguars 9 190 21.1 3179 586 5.42
16 Houston Texans 9 192 21.3 3060 575 5.32
17 Cincinnati Bengals 9 192 21.3 3456 568 6.08
18 Philadelphia Eagles 9 195 21.7 2910 552 5.27
19 Atlanta Falcons 10 217 21.7 3088 620 4.98
20 Seattle Seahawks 9 201 22.3 3189 618 5.16
21 Detroit Lions 9 203 22.6 2796 534 5.24
22 Los Angeles Rams 9 204 22.7 3060 570 5.37
23 New England Patriots 10 238 23.8 3265 657 4.97
24 Los Angeles Chargers 9 215 23.9 3539 604 5.86
25 Indianapolis Colts 10 248 24.8 3585 695 5.16
26 Miami Dolphins 9 225 25.0 2902 573 5.06
27 Chicago Bears 10 255 25.5 3242 616 5.26
28 Arizona Cardinals 10 263 26.3 3426 648 5.29
29 New York Giants 10 266 26.6 3685 622 5.92
30 Carolina Panthers 9 242 26.9 2775 545 5.09
31 Washington Commanders 10 274 27.4 3809 659 5.78
32 Denver Broncos 9 248 27.6 3616 564 6.41

With continued good play the defense can finish not last in both stats by season’s end, but that means the Commanders and Panthers need to continue giving up lots of points and the Bengals need to continue giving up plenty of yards per play. The Bengals are currently 31st in YPP allowed at 6.08.

At least the Bronco defense is no longer worst in history in YPP allowed. That should stay with the 2015 Saints who allowed 6.63 YPP. Of course of all the teams who have allowed 6.10 or more YPP in a season only four of 37 have had a winning record at season’s end.

Rk Season Team DY/P G W L T W-L% Pts PtsO PtDif Tot TO DPly DY/P
1 2015 NOR 6.63 16 7 9 0 .438 408 476 -68 6615 22 997 6.63
2 1961 MIN 6.52 14 3 11 0 .214 285 407 -122 5593 45 858 6.52
3 2012 NOR 6.47 16 7 9 0 .438 461 454 7 7042 26 1089 6.47
4 1959 WAS 6.42 12 3 9 0 .250 185 350 -165 4644 27 723 6.42
5 1950 BCL 6.41 12 1 11 0 .083 213 462 -249 5246 48 818 6.41
6 2008 DET 6.41 16 0 16 0 .000 268 517 -249 6470 20 1009 6.41
7 2023 DEN 6.41 9 4 5 0 .444 196 248 -52 3616 16 564 6.41
8 1962 WAS 6.36 14 5 7 2 .417 305 376 -71 5238 48 823 6.36
9 1958 WAS 6.32 12 4 7 1 .364 214 268 -54 4402 38 696 6.32
10 2011 TAM 6.30 16 4 12 0 .250 287 494 -207 6311 24 1002 6.30
11 1962 DAL 6.29 14 5 8 1 .385 398 402 -4 5184 36 824 6.29
12 2004 KAN 6.29 16 7 9 0 .438 483 435 48 6037 21 960 6.29
13 2020 DET 6.29 16 5 11 0 .313 377 519 -142 6716 12 1068 6.29
14 2011 GNB 6.28 16 15 1 0 .938 560 359 201 6585 38 1049 6.28
15 2010 JAX 6.28 16 8 8 0 .500 353 419 -66 5949 18 948 6.28
16 2000 SEA 6.27 16 6 10 0 .375 320 405 -85 6391 29 1019 6.27
17 2018 OAK 6.27 16 4 12 0 .250 290 467 -177 6102 17 973 6.27
18 2020 JAX 6.26 16 1 15 0 .063 306 492 -186 6683 17 1068 6.26
19 2020 HOU 6.24 16 4 12 0 .250 384 464 -80 6668 9 1068 6.24
20 2011 CAR 6.22 16 6 10 0 .375 406 429 -23 6042 24 972 6.22
21 2022 DET 6.20 17 9 8 0 .529 453 427 26 6670 22 1076 6.20
22 2013 CHI 6.18 16 8 8 0 .500 445 478 -33 6313 28 1021 6.18
23 2011 NWE 6.18 16 13 3 0 .813 513 342 171 6577 34 1064 6.18
24 2020 ATL 6.16 16 4 12 0 .250 396 414 -18 6374 21 1034 6.16
25 2018 TAM 6.15 16 5 11 0 .313 396 464 -68 6134 17 998 6.15
26 2014 ATL 6.14 16 6 10 0 .375 381 417 -36 6372 28 1038 6.14
27 2022 CHI 6.13 17 3 14 0 .176 326 463 -137 6390 23 1043 6.13
28 2013 SDG 6.11 16 9 7 0 .563 396 348 48 5864 17 959 6.11
29 1981 BAL 6.11 16 2 14 0 .125 259 533 -274 6793 30 1111 6.11
30 2018 MIA 6.11 16 7 9 0 .438 319 433 -114 6257 28 1024 6.11
31 2001 ATL 6.11 16 7 9 0 .438 291 377 -86 5845 30 957 6.11
32 2018 CIN 6.11 16 6 10 0 .375 368 455 -87 6618 18 1084 6.11
33 1969 NOR 6.10 14 5 9 0 .357 311 393 -82 5018 22 822 6.10
34 2008 STL 6.10 16 2 14 0 .125 232 465 -233 5950 26 975 6.10
35 1956 GNB 6.10 12 4 8 0 .333 264 342 -78 4710 29 772 6.10
36 2020 CIN 6.10 16 4 11 1 .281 311 424 -113 6227 17 1021 6.10
37 2009 DET 6.10 16 2 14 0 .125 262 494 -232 6274 23 1029 6.10

The 2011 Packers (15-1) and Patriots (13-3), the 2013 Chargers (9-7) and the 2022 Lions (9-8).

The Bronco defense is also currently last (by a large margin) in terms of rushing yards allowed per carry (5.57). The Bengals are currently second worst allowing 5.05 YPC. The Bears defense leads the league at 3.2.