If you believe the rumors, the Broncos will be drafting a wide receiver in the first round if one of the “Big 3” are still available at 15.
This prompted me to ponder how often first-round wide receivers are “successful.” Most teams that are consistently successful in the NFL use their first-round picks on players that are at least above-average starters. Unfortunately the Broncos have not really done that in recent years. Bradley Chubb is definitely an above-average starter (at least). Noah Fant is arguably one as well, but the other four of our last six first-round picks were not. Maybe Bradley Roby qualifies, but Garrett Bolles, Paxton Lynch and Shane Ray are/were decidedly below average for/at their positions.
There have been 77 wide receivers taken in the first round of the draft this century. The most taken in any year was seven in 2004. Six times there have been six or more wide receivers taken in the first round, but over the past decade, the number of first-round wideouts has been consistently lower than six.
Year | WRs Drafted in round 1 |
2019 | 2 |
2018 | 2 |
2017 | 3 |
2016 | 4 |
2015 | 6 |
2014 | 5 |
2013 | 3 |
2012 | 4 |
2011 | 3 |
2010 | 2 |
2009 | 6 |
2008 | 0 |
2007 | 6 |
2006 | 1 |
2005 | 6 |
2004 | 7 |
2003 | 3 |
2002 | 3 |
2001 | 6 |
2000 | 5 |
So now we get into the discussion of what makes a first-round pick at WR a successful pick?
If you use first-team All Pro selections, then only nine of the 77 first-round picks have qualified and only eight of those were as wide receivers (Corderelle Patterson made first team All Pro as a punt/kickoff returner).
If you use first team Pro Bowl selections, then 21 of these first-round wide receivers have done that. Here’s the full table with current career stats for those who are still playing:
Year | Rnd | Pick | Player | Tm | From | To | AP1 | PB | St | CarAV | G | GS | Rec | Yds | TD | College/Univ |
2019 | 1 | 25 | Marquise Brown | BAL | 2019 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 46 | 584 | 7 | Oklahoma |
2019 | 1 | 32 | N'Keal Harry | NWE | 2019 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 105 | 2 | Arizona St. |
2018 | 1 | 24 | D.J. Moore | CAR | 2018 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 31 | 25 | 142 | 1963 | 6 | Maryland |
2018 | 1 | 26 | Calvin Ridley | ATL | 2018 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 29 | 15 | 127 | 1687 | 17 | Alabama |
2017 | 1 | 5 | Corey Davis | TEN | 2017 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 36 | 142 | 1867 | 6 | West. Michigan |
2017 | 1 | 7 | Mike Williams | LAC | 2017 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 21 | 103 | 1760 | 12 | Clemson |
2017 | 1 | 9 | John Ross | CIN | 2017 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 49 | 716 | 10 | Washington |
2016 | 1 | 15 | Corey Coleman | CLE | 2016 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 19 | 61 | 789 | 5 | Baylor |
2016 | 1 | 21 | Will Fuller | HOU | 2016 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 42 | 41 | 156 | 2231 | 16 | Notre Dame |
2016 | 1 | 22 | Josh Doctson | WAS | 2016 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 26 | 81 | 1100 | 8 | TCU |
2016 | 1 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell | MIN | 2016 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 16 | 65 | 701 | 2 | Mississippi |
2015 | 1 | 4 | Amari Cooper | OAK | 2015 | 2019 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 77 | 72 | 357 | 5097 | 33 | Alabama |
2015 | 1 | 7 | Kevin White | CHI | 2016 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 25 | 285 | 0 | West Virginia |
2015 | 1 | 14 | DeVante Parker | MIA | 2015 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 70 | 45 | 235 | 3419 | 18 | Louisville |
2015 | 1 | 20 | Nelson Agholor | PHI | 2015 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 71 | 62 | 224 | 2515 | 18 | USC |
2015 | 1 | 26 | Breshad Perriman | BAL | 2016 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 51 | 10 | 95 | 1561 | 11 | Central Florida |
2015 | 1 | 29 | Phillip Dorsett | IND | 2015 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 71 | 15 | 124 | 1634 | 11 | Miami (FL) |
2014 | 1 | 4 | Sammy Watkins | BUF | 2014 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 76 | 73 | 284 | 4244 | 31 | Clemson |
2014 | 1 | 7 | Mike Evans | TAM | 2014 | 2019 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 49 | 90 | 89 | 462 | 7260 | 48 | Texas A&M |
2014 | 1 | 12 | Odell Beckham | NYG | 2014 | 2019 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 75 | 71 | 464 | 6511 | 48 | LSU |
2014 | 1 | 20 | Brandin Cooks | NOR | 2014 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 51 | 88 | 77 | 402 | 5730 | 34 | Oregon St. |
2014 | 1 | 28 | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 2014 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 61 | 52 | 209 | 3021 | 20 | Florida St. |
2013 | 1 | 8 | Tavon Austin | STL | 2013 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 96 | 50 | 215 | 2006 | 15 | West Virginia |
2013 | 1 | 27 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 2013 | 2019 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 59 | 110 | 110 | 632 | 8602 | 54 | Clemson |
2013 | 1 | 29 | Cordarrelle Patterson | MIN | 2013 | 2019 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 111 | 33 | 195 | 1955 | 10 | Tennessee |
2012 | 1 | 5 | Justin Blackmon | JAX | 2012 | 2014 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 18 | 93 | 1280 | 6 | Oklahoma St. |
2012 | 1 | 13 | Michael Floyd | ARI | 2012 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 102 | 51 | 266 | 3959 | 25 | Notre Dame |
2012 | 1 | 20 | Kendall Wright | TEN | 2012 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 82 | 45 | 339 | 3858 | 19 | Baylor |
2012 | 1 | 30 | A.J. Jenkins | SFO | 2012 | 2014 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 3 | 17 | 223 | 0 | Illinois |
2011 | 1 | 4 | A.J. Green | CIN | 2011 | 2018 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 68 | 111 | 111 | 602 | 8907 | 63 | Georgia |
2011 | 1 | 6 | Julio Jones | ATL | 2011 | 2019 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 94 | 126 | 125 | 797 | 12125 | 57 | Alabama |
2011 | 1 | 26 | Jonathan Baldwin | KAN | 2011 | 2013 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 11 | 44 | 607 | 2 | Pittsburgh |
2010 | 1 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 2010 | 2019 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 69 | 143 | 128 | 724 | 9763 | 63 | Georgia Tech |
2010 | 1 | 24 | Dez Bryant | DAL | 2010 | 2017 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 61 | 113 | 99 | 531 | 7459 | 73 | Oklahoma St. |
2009 | 1 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | OAK | 2009 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 144 | 71 | 202 | 2897 | 16 | Maryland |
2009 | 1 | 10 | Michael Crabtree | SFO | 2009 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 53 | 143 | 139 | 637 | 7499 | 54 | Texas Tech |
2009 | 1 | 19 | Jeremy Maclin | PHI | 2009 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 51 | 114 | 112 | 514 | 6835 | 49 | Missouri |
2009 | 1 | 22 | Percy Harvin | MIN | 2009 | 2016 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 43 | 75 | 61 | 353 | 4026 | 22 | Florida |
2009 | 1 | 29 | Hakeem Nicks | NYG | 2009 | 2015 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 92 | 67 | 356 | 5081 | 31 | North Carolina |
2009 | 1 | 30 | Kenny Britt | TEN | 2009 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 116 | 76 | 329 | 5137 | 32 | Rutgers |
2007 | 1 | 2 | Calvin Johnson | DET | 2007 | 2015 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 78 | 135 | 130 | 731 | 11619 | 83 | Georgia Tech |
2007 | 1 | 9 | Ted Ginn | MIA | 2007 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 52 | 187 | 83 | 409 | 5702 | 33 | Ohio St. |
2007 | 1 | 23 | Dwayne Bowe | KAN | 2007 | 2015 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 125 | 112 | 537 | 7208 | 44 | LSU |
2007 | 1 | 27 | Robert Meachem | NOR | 2008 | 2014 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 103 | 35 | 178 | 2914 | 27 | Tennessee |
2007 | 1 | 30 | Craig Davis | SDG | 2007 | 2010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 51 | 558 | 2 | LSU |
2007 | 1 | 32 | Anthony Gonzalez | IND | 2007 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 40 | 12 | 99 | 1307 | 7 | Ohio St. |
2006 | 1 | 25 | Santonio Holmes | PIT | 2006 | 2014 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 47 | 112 | 91 | 389 | 6030 | 36 | Ohio St. |
2005 | 1 | 3 | Braylon Edwards | CLE | 2005 | 2012 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 41 | 112 | 93 | 359 | 5522 | 40 | Michigan |
2005 | 1 | 7 | Troy Williamson | MIN | 2005 | 2009 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 24 | 87 | 1131 | 4 | South Carolina |
2005 | 1 | 10 | Mike Williams | DET | 2005 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 56 | 30 | 127 | 1526 | 5 | USC |
2005 | 1 | 21 | Matt Jones | JAX | 2005 | 2008 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 54 | 15 | 166 | 2153 | 15 | Arkansas |
2005 | 1 | 22 | Mark Clayton | BAL | 2005 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 83 | 65 | 260 | 3448 | 14 | Oklahoma |
2005 | 1 | 27 | Roddy White | ATL | 2005 | 2015 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 88 | 171 | 149 | 808 | 10863 | 63 | Ala-Birmingham |
2004 | 1 | 3 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 2004 | 2019 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 92 | 250 | 248 | 1378 | 17083 | 120 | Pittsburgh |
2004 | 1 | 7 | Roy Williams | DET | 2004 | 2011 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 115 | 94 | 393 | 5715 | 44 | Texas |
2004 | 1 | 9 | Reggie Williams | JAX | 2004 | 2008 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 79 | 53 | 189 | 2322 | 18 | Washington |
2004 | 1 | 13 | Lee Evans | BUF | 2004 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 49 | 118 | 104 | 381 | 6008 | 43 | Wisconsin |
2004 | 1 | 15 | Michael Clayton | TAM | 2004 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 95 | 56 | 223 | 2955 | 10 | LSU |
2004 | 1 | 29 | Michael Jenkins | ATL | 2004 | 2012 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 130 | 79 | 354 | 4427 | 25 | Ohio St. |
2004 | 1 | 31 | Rashaun Woods | SFO | 2004 | 2004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 160 | 1 | Oklahoma St. |
2003 | 1 | 2 | Charles Rogers | DET | 2003 | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 36 | 440 | 4 | Michigan St. |
2003 | 1 | 3 | Andre Johnson | HOU | 2003 | 2016 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 95 | 193 | 187 | 1062 | 14185 | 70 | Miami (FL) |
2003 | 1 | 17 | Bryant Johnson | ARI | 2003 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 139 | 74 | 314 | 3938 | 16 | Penn St. |
2002 | 1 | 13 | Donte' Stallworth | NOR | 2002 | 2012 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 115 | 60 | 321 | 4837 | 35 | Tennessee |
2002 | 1 | 19 | Ashley Lelie | DEN | 2002 | 2008 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 107 | 59 | 217 | 3749 | 15 | Hawaii |
2002 | 1 | 20 | Javon Walker | GNB | 2002 | 2009 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 83 | 46 | 267 | 4011 | 31 | Florida St. |
2001 | 1 | 8 | David Terrell | CHI | 2001 | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 54 | 29 | 128 | 1602 | 9 | Michigan |
2001 | 1 | 9 | Koren Robinson | SEA | 2001 | 2008 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 96 | 70 | 294 | 4244 | 16 | North Carolina St. |
2001 | 1 | 15 | Rod Gardner | WAS | 2001 | 2006 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 91 | 62 | 242 | 3165 | 23 | Clemson |
2001 | 1 | 16 | Santana Moss | NYJ | 2001 | 2014 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 73 | 197 | 135 | 732 | 10283 | 66 | Miami (FL) |
2001 | 1 | 25 | Freddie Mitchell | PHI | 2001 | 2004 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 63 | 17 | 90 | 1263 | 5 | UCLA |
2001 | 1 | 30 | Reggie Wayne | IND | 2001 | 2014 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 117 | 211 | 197 | 1070 | 14345 | 82 | Miami (FL) |
2000 | 1 | 4 | Peter Warrick | CIN | 2000 | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 79 | 60 | 275 | 2991 | 18 | Florida St. |
2000 | 1 | 8 | Plaxico Burress | PIT | 2000 | 2012 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 69 | 148 | 138 | 553 | 8499 | 64 | Michigan St. |
2000 | 1 | 10 | Travis Taylor | BAL | 2000 | 2007 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 101 | 90 | 312 | 4017 | 22 | Florida |
2000 | 1 | 21 | Sylvester Morris | KAN | 2000 | 2000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 48 | 678 | 3 | Jackson St. |
2000 | 1 | 29 | R. Jay Soward | JAX | 2000 | 2000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 154 | 1 | USC |
So I guess you have to ask yourself: Are we getting the next Santana Moss if we draft Ruggs/Jeudy/Lamb at 15 - or are we getting the next John Ross?
Keep this in mind - 19 of the 77 wide receivers taken in the first round this century have or had fewer than 100 career receptions in the NFL.
Let’s not forget that recent first-round wide receivers have been disappointing. No receiver taken in the first round since Amari Cooper in 2015 has made the Pro Bowl. So let’s focus on the 2015 NFL class of wide receivers. That was supposed to be a very good year for WR talent.
There were 34 wide receivers taken that year in the draft. Only two have made the Pro Bowl and only one, Cooper, as a wide receiver. Tyler Lockett made it as a returner. Lockett was also the All Pro returner that season. Of those six wide receivers taken in the first, three of them have never been a starter - Kevin White, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett.
It could be that NFL teams learned in 2015 that taking wide receivers in the first round is more risky than it used to be given the inflated passing offenses in the college game. That would explain the general lack of first round wide receivers taken in the last four drafts. It could also be that there was “limited” talent at wide receiver in the last four drafts.
Either way there could be seven or eight wide receivers taken in the first two rounds this year as there were in 2015. Let’s hope that the 2020 class of wide receivers has better NFL careers than the 2015 class.