Mile High Report - 2016 NFL Free Agency: Track Denver Broncos news & rumorsBy Fans, For Fans....Your Source For Denver Broncos News and Commenthttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50905/mhr-fav.png2019-03-08T20:00:00-07:00http://www.milehighreport.com/rss/stream/107280852019-03-08T20:00:00-07:002019-03-08T20:00:00-07:00Keenum trade a win for the Broncos
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<p>Tony Pauline joined 1st & 10 @ 10 to dissect the trade and how each team made out. They also touched on what this now means for Denver in the NFL Draft.</p> <p id="COeKYs">Tony Pauline had the news before anyone else. </p>
<p id="zPVdsG"><a href="https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/3/7/18255148/report-about-a-half-of-dozen-of-teams-including-the-redskins-are-showing-interest-in-case-keenum">On Wednesday night,</a> Pauline said the <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/washington-redskins">Washington Redskins</a> were in on Case Keenum. Pauline is with <a href="https://t.co/0X0mh4FrbR">NFL Draft Analyst</a> and can be heard on the Blev Podcast Network. He was told by multiple people that Keenum was a target for them at quarterback. Less than 24 hours later, the Redskins and <a href="https://www.milehighreport.com/">Denver Broncos</a> <a href="https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/3/7/18255330/broncos-redskins-trade-case-keenum">worked out a deal.</a> That will be finalized on Wednesday when the league year officially starts. </p>
<p id="IUFiOe"><a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1641777&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.spreaker.com%2Fuser%2F9808547%2Ftony-pauline-on-1st-10-03-08-19&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.milehighreport.com%2F2019%2F3%2F8%2F18256710%2Fcase-keenum-broncos-redskins-trade" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">On Friday’s 1st & 10 @ 10 on Orange and Blue 760,</a> Pauline joined the guys to talk about the trade and how it affects both teams. Pauline said it makes sense for both the Broncos and Washington, and I agree with him. The fact John Elway was able to unload half of the $7 million guaranteed to Keenum is a major win. </p>
<p id="z2zAmF">Pauline and the guys also talked about what went wrong for Keenum and why it didn’t work out for him in Denver. I personally believe it’s a combination of him not being very good but also Bill Musgrave and the coaching staff not utilizing him properly. </p>
<p id="G4izCI">They also touch on what the Broncos should do in the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-draft">NFL Draft</a>. Pauline said, despite the fact Denver traded for <span>Joe Flacco</span>, the need is still quarterback. </p>
<p id="OwT1AT">In terms of the draft, we’ll get a good gauge of what the Broncos will do after free agency and who they sign. Good thing for Denver fans, we’re only a few days away. </p>
<h2 id="goilov">Bonus listen </h2>
<p id="z6V1yj"><a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1641777&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.spreaker.com%2Fuser%2F9808547%2Ftim-lynch-on-1st-10-03-08-19&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.milehighreport.com%2F2019%2F3%2F8%2F18256710%2Fcase-keenum-broncos-redskins-trade" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">MHR’s Tim Lynch joined the guys</a> to talk about the Keenum trade, the transition to Flacco and addressing the needs in the draft. </p>
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https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/3/8/18256710/case-keenum-broncos-redskins-tradeIan St. Clair2017-03-07T20:58:23-07:002017-03-07T20:58:23-07:00Should Broncos target Okung or Whitworth?
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<p>Broncos are reportedly discussing terms with Russell Okung whose market value has gone up - but may still be cheaper than others.</p> <p id="CeDb3I">Free agency opened its two-day tampering period Tuesday before the chess game begins in earnest on Thursday - and the rumblings around Dove Valley have begun as well.</p>
<p id="ujAfG8">Although the Tony Romo rumors are the sexiest, it’s no secret the Broncos mainly want to target their offensive and defensive lines for bolstering. But how they do that is very much a mystery.</p>
<p id="9pbVH0">News came out Tuesday that although the Broncos do not plan to pick up Russell Okung’s option, <a href="https://twitter.com/JamesPalmerTV/status/839239409279041536">they are interested in renegotiating the terms to keep the left tackle. </a></p>
<p id="WdTX5Q">Eric Goodman and Les Shapiro debated on the Afternoon Drive the Broncos deciding between Russell Okung and Andrew Whitworth.</p>
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<p id="PGbrIx">For Shapiro, it’s definitely Okung.</p>
<p id="UjozMG">Instead of going after the Bengals’ three-time Pro Bowl left tackle that earned Pro Football Focus’ highest pass-blocking efficiency score of 98.0 - and the same tackle who allowed just 14 total QB pressures on 561 pass-blocking snaps, recording six games with a perfect pass-pro score and getting beaten for only one sack after Week 6 - Shapiro prefers the Broncos’ left tackle. A left tackle who was previously touted as a top 10 offensive lineman but who was known more for increasing fans’ blood pressure with his penalties last season than beating back any QB pressures.</p>
<p id="e14aGk">But in a bad market, mediocre talent at a tolerable price where there is a lot of demand will rival great talent at a hefty price - and that’s the spot the 29-year-old Okung is finding himself as many teams need tackles but not enough Whitworths exist - or not affordable ones. And at 35, the Bengal tackle is not a sure thing.</p>
<p id="zCQZm2">So Shapiro says "go with the devil you know rather than the one you don’t."</p>
<p id="K6VF1j">Andrew Mason of <a href="http://denverbroncos.com">denverbroncos.com</a> seems to also favor this move.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">As I've said before, played better down the stretch than early. Scarcity of viable free-agent OTs means he'll have market value. <a href="https://t.co/cVGaPnG5YI">https://t.co/cVGaPnG5YI</a></p>
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) <a href="https://twitter.com/MaseDenver/status/839240778463469568">March 7, 2017</a>
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<p id="mnPQdM">And, of course, it mostly boils down to money.</p>
<p id="NgbJon">With his $3 million in incentives, Okung made $8 million from the Broncos last season. He’s likely to command $8-$10 million in this market. But Whitworth is going to cost closer to $12 million. When you have other needs, the $4 million savings can be crucial.</p>
<p id="rmUtxR">Okung could be the safer and more reliable option - unless he can find a team who needs him more and wants to pay.</p>
<div class="c-float-right"><aside id="Vp9sMf"><q>"Bring back Okung. Bring him back at a good price. The market is <em>barren</em>...If you get him at the right price, move on and fill some other needs." - Les Shapiro</q></aside></div>
<p id="6dvexL">"The more I think about it, bring back Okung. Bring him back at a good price. The market is <em>barren," </em>Shapiro noted. <em>"</em>Okung you know. You know what he is. You know what you need to do to light a fire under him to make him better. ...If you get him at the right price, you’ve got your left tackle, move on and fill some other needs."</p>
<p id="JEOFNv">Goodman’s concern is if the Broncos are serious about Romo, a much better offensive line is an absolute must.</p>
<p id="WBw1Hp">"This is why you need Whitworth," Goodman said. "This is why you need five Whitworths."</p>
<p id="HRFGBK">So what do you think, Broncos Country - is Okung the safer bet? Is he good enough at left tackle to get some improvement overall with other moves on the O-line?</p>
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https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/3/7/14841234/should-broncos-target-russell-okung-or-andrew-whitworth-for-left-tackleLaurie Lattimore-Volkmann2016-06-14T14:24:34-06:002016-06-14T14:24:34-06:00Brandon Marshall signs 4-year extension
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<p>The first piece of the puzzle is now in place.</p>
<p>According to reports and the team, <span>Brandon Marshall</span> signed a four-year extension with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.milehighreport.com/">Denver Broncos</a> on Tuesday afternoon.</p>
<p>The contract is reported to be worth $32 million, with $20 million guaranteed and a $10 million signing bonus. One would think most of the cap hit will come in 2017 when the Broncos have a ton of space. And this could also free up money to sign a few other key pieces in the process.</p>
<p>Compare Marshall's contract to the one <span>Danny Trevathan</span> got with the <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.windycitygridiron.com/">Chicago Bears</a>, where he signed a four year, $24.5 million contract on March 9. Trevathan received $12 million guaranteed upon signing, including a $5 million signing bonus. Marshall is now paid like one of the best in the NFL, and he is.</p>
<p>With a defensive leader locked up, John Elway can now turn his focus to <span>Von Miller</span> and Emmanuel Sanders. With about a month before the July 15 deadline, there is ample reason to believe both will get done. And all of this nonsensical talk that Elway is cheap and he doesn't lock up his players can end.</p>
<p>The drama and impatience can end with it. Newsflash: Elway knows what he's doing and is pretty darn good at it.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thrilled that our team has agreed to terms with LB <span>Brandon Marshall</span> on a four-year extension. He's become an integral part of our defense.</p>
— John Elway (@johnelway) <a href="https://twitter.com/johnelway/status/742816629621293057">June 14, 2016</a>
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<p>As I said this morning, these things take time. They just don't happen over night. As Elway has said, "it's a process." This is the first step in that to keep the players who are vital to Denver's success. Let's make no mistake: Marshall, Sanders and Miller are that for the Broncos.</p>
<p>Hopefully this will bring an end to the confusion with the receiver with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.ganggreennation.com/">New York Jets</a> who has the same name. It's beyond time this Brandon Marshall stand alone. And this one has actually won a <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/super-bowl">Super Bowl</a>. If Denver didn't re-sign Marshall, you knew no middle linebacker would. He's everything Elway and <span>Gary Kubiak</span> want out of their players.</p>
<p>In the meantime, Broncos Country should enjoy that an integral part of the defense will remain in a Broncos uniform for the next four years.</p>
<p>As Marshall told The Denver Post: "This means the world. It means everything to me to be a Bronco."</p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">It means a lot to us fans too <a href="https://twitter.com/BMarshh54">@BMarshh54</a>! Keeping that defense elite! <a href="https://t.co/p47Mn4jFhF">https://t.co/p47Mn4jFhF</a></p>
— MileHighReport (@MileHighReport) <a href="https://twitter.com/MileHighReport/status/742818187801042944">June 14, 2016</a>
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<p>Marshall is a leader, knows the defense and can do it all on the field as an inside linebacker. He really has no weakness in his game, and he has the work ethic to get even better. Plus, he's now fully healthy, and that's not something that could be said last season. Despite that fact, Marshall has played more snaps (1,783) than any front seven player for the Broncos during the last two years. In those two seasons, he finished with back-to-back 100-tackle seasons.</p>
<p>Now he also gets another year in the Wade Phillips system.</p>
<p>Think about that when you hear the Broncos have "struggled" in the offseason. Nine of the 11 starters on defense will return and they know the defense and their coaches. Add the motivation of seeing a teammate get a much-needed extension, and you can see the pieces start to fill in for a hopeful title defense.</p>
<p>The extension of Marshall was the first step.</p>
<p>Now the focus turns to Sanders and Miller.</p>
<p>Both will get done. Both will remain in Denver. The team has the money to do so, and has the cap space next season to make it happen.</p>
<p>All three will work to ensure the Broncos continue to compete for Super Bowl championships.</p>
https://www.milehighreport.com/2016/6/14/11937376/report-brandon-marshall-signs-4-year-extension-with-the-broncosIan St. Clair2016-05-12T07:00:04-06:002016-05-12T07:00:04-06:00Will Zaire Anderson replace Danny Trevathan?
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<p>The linebacker from Nebraska spent last season on the practice squad but Denver is really high on him.</p> <p dir="ltr">Since March, it's seemed like the <a href="https://www.milehighreport.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Denver Broncos</a> were in a state of flux.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Fans had just a little more patience than new <a href="https://www.battleredblog.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Houston Texans</a> quarterback <span>Brock Osweiler</span> does experience. They all wanted answers yesterday.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Despite the pleas to remain calm and not jump off of the edge, some couldn't or flat out refused. They couldn't see the forest through the trees and were certain that John Elway screwed the pooch.</p>
<p dir="ltr">As is often the case in life, answers started to come and all was right with the world. Elway was, once again, a genius.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Yet one question remains unanswered: Who will replace <span>Danny Trevathan</span> at middle linebacker?</p>
<p dir="ltr">Before we go any further, there's no need to feel concern. The Broncos know what they're doing when it comes to middle linebackers.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The talk the last few days has focused on <span>Todd Davis</span> and Corey Nelson. Perhaps there is some merit to that, since both have entered their third year and know this defense. When Trevathan was out last season, both filled in and the defense didn't miss a beat. So they've proven to their coaches and teammates that they can do it in this system.</p>
<p dir="ltr">One guy to keep an eye on, though, is <span>Zaire Anderson</span>.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">As I have mentioned before, they like what they have in Todd Davis, Corey Nelson and Zaire Anderson. <a href="https://t.co/0DzilIauNk">https://t.co/0DzilIauNk</a></p>
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) <a href="https://twitter.com/MaseDenver/status/726567950652575744">May 1, 2016</a>
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<p dir="ltr">The linebacker from Nebraska spent last season on the practice squad but the Broncos are really high on him.</p>
<p dir="ltr"><a href="http://www.denverbroncos.com/news-and-blogs/article-mailbag/Masons-Mailbag-Inside-linebackers-Devontae-Booker-Trevor-Siemian-and-more/5a4d0b9f-4382-48ef-a191-211834eef393">As Andrew Mason said in his mailbag earlier this week:</a></p>
<p dir="ltr">"(Anderson) is a classic ‘plays-bigger-than-his-measurables' player who has outstanding instincts, is tenacious and always around the ball."</p>
<p dir="ltr">That takes away one of Anderson's perceived weaknesses - his size. At 5-foot-11, some feel he isn't big enough to play middle linebacker in the NFL. For comparison's sake: Two former Broncos linebackers played at 5-11 and 6-0, respectively, and they were pretty damn good. Those guys were Tom Jackson and <span>Al Wilson</span>.</p>
<p dir="ltr">As Mason said, the good linebackers play and seem bigger than they are, and it appears Anderson is one of those guys. Like Bobby Boucher in "The Waterboy," Anderson is a tackling machine. <a href="http://www.milehighreport.com/2015/7/3/8890399/broncos-roster-2015-zaire-anderson">As our scouting report on Anderson said last year,</a> "He's a well-rounded football player. He's a sound tackler, a quick and agile blitzer, and can cover tight ends and running backs."</p>
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<p dir="ltr">Some eyebrows were raised when Elway didn't draft a middle linebacker at the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-draft" class="sbn-auto-link">NFL Draft</a> a few weeks ago. For some, it meant they moved back to the edge.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The decision not to draft a player at that position only means Elway, his staff and the coaches really like what they have right now. And short of <span>Lamin Barrow</span>, they've delivered at supreme levels when it comes to middle linebackers.</p>
<p dir="ltr">There was concern when <span>Wesley Woodyard</span> left and two unproven players - Trevathan and <span>Brandon Marshall</span> - got their chance to replace him.</p>
<p dir="ltr">As was the case then, there's no need to fret.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Davis, Nelson and Anderson are up to the task.</p>
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<p dir="ltr">"Especially in this camp, you can tell the guys that have been here," Wade Phillips said. "They're way ahead of everybody else. We've got some good athletes that have come in and so forth. But they've been trained for a year and both of them look good in this camp so far.</p>
<p dir="ltr">"Just knowing the system, knowing what to do ... and knowing what we ask them to do has helped those guys. Hopefully these guys will follow."</p>
<p dir="ltr">One thing is clear about Elway and coach <span>Gary Kubiak</span>: they love competition. They want guys to earn it on the field, weight and meeting room. Nothing is given in Denver.</p>
<p dir="ltr">There are three guys who could take the spot of Trevathan in this defense.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Just remember to include Anderson in any discussions about the Broncos middle linebacker.</p>
https://www.milehighreport.com/2016/5/12/11660418/zaire-anderson-major-contender-to-become-broncos-starting-middle-linebackerIan St. Clair2016-05-12T06:34:28-06:002016-05-12T06:34:28-06:00Why did Brock Osweiler go to the Texans?
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<p>Eric Goodman and Les Shapiro <a href="https://milehighsports.com/afternoon-drive-with-eric-goodman/" target="_blank">from The Afternoon Drive</a> chatted with former Denver Broncos offensive lineman, Tyler Polumbus, about why Brock Osweiler decided to move on to the Houston Texans. For sure, the money played a big factor in the final decision, but you could tell there was more to this than just the money for Osweiler.</p>
<h3>Bonus Listen</h3>
<p>Eric and Les ask Polumbus about Shane Ray's tattoo of the Kansas City Chiefs logo and whether or not it offended him.</p>
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https://www.milehighreport.com/2016/5/12/11662450/why-did-brock-osweiler-go-to-the-houston-texansTim Lynch2016-04-25T11:58:20-06:002016-04-25T11:58:20-06:00Should the Broncos explore a trade for Bradford?
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<p>Should the Broncos explore a trade for quarterback Sam Bradford?</p> <p>According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, quarterback <span>Sam Bradford</span> has informed the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/">Philadelphia Eagles</a> that he wants to be traded and will not be showing up to their offseason program.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Eagles have been informed Sam Bradford wants to be traded and he will not be showing up for their off-season program any longer, per source.</p>
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/724617954986459136">April 25, 2016</a>
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<p>Bradford is demanding a trade because the Eagles traded up to the second overall pick to select either Cal quarterback Jared Goff or North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz. They also signed free agent quarterback Chase Daniels to a deal worth $7 million dollars a year, so it makes sense that Bradford may want out of this situation.</p>
<p>The Eagled signed Bradford to a two-year, $35 million deal earlier this year.</p>
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<p>What makes Bradford an attractive trade option for quarterback-needy teams is that Bradford's remaining cap number for 2016 is only $7 million dollars. That's a bargain if you're looking for a quarterback capable of starting for your team.</p>
<p>Now should the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.milehighreport.com/">Broncos</a> have interest in trading for quarterback Sam Bradford? I think they should.</p>
<p>As Andrew Mason says here, Bradford is only <a href="https://twitter.com/MaseDenver/status/724649256108224517">due $7 million dollars this year and that is exactly the price the Broncos wanted to pay to 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick.</a> So Bradford would fit the Broncos apparent budget.</p>
<p>He is also probably the best quarterback option out there for the Broncos. Kaepernick probably has the highest potential but is coming off two down years, Hoyer is a fringe starter at best, so is Sanchez, and the Broncos might not be able to get the top quarterbacks in this year's draft. So Bradford makes sense, and would only cost the Broncos a mid to late round pick.</p>
<p>Bradford isn't a great quarterback but would give the Broncos a veteran option under center, a quarterback with a career completion percentage of 60%, and someone who can be that "game manager" at quarterback for the Broncos. He does come with some injury concerns, so the Broncos would need a reliable backup on the team(Sanchez) ready and waiting.</p>
<p>During Bradford's career, he has totaled 14,790 yards passing, 78 touchdowns, 52 interceptions, and a career quarterback rating of 81.0</p>
<p>It is unclear if the Broncos will give the Eagles a call, but I think they should at least kick the tires on Bradford. If they're willing to sign <span>Brian Hoyer</span>, trade for <span>Mark Sanchez</span> and <span>Colin Kaepernick</span>, why not Sam Bradford?</p>
<p>What do you think Mile High Report? He is not the greatest option, but the Broncos need someone at quarterback. I think Bradford could be an alright option going forward.</p>
https://www.milehighreport.com/2016/4/25/11503648/quarterback-sam-bradford-demands-a-trade-from-the-eagles-should-theScotty Payne2016-04-25T07:00:05-06:002016-04-25T07:00:05-06:00Sylvester Williams and the 5th year option
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<figcaption>Ezra Shaw/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Since the CBA of 2011, all drafted rookie NFL players receive 4 year contracts, but players selected in the 1st round of the draft are subject to a 5th year option at a predetermined set price if their teams choose to exercise that option. That choice must be made after the end of each player's 3rd regular NFL season, and before May 3rd of each player's 4th season. That deadline is rapidly approaching for the 2013 first round picks including <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.milehighreport.com/">Denver Broncos</a>' DT <span>Sylvester Williams</span>.</p>
<p>There is a 2 tiered system for determining the price of the 5th year option. For players selected in the top 10, the price is equal to the price of the transition tag for players at the same position for each potential "optionee's" 4th year. For players selected between #11 and #32 inclusive, the CBA describes the price as being the average of the 3rd through the 25th highest "salaries" (meaning cap hits) for that position in the player's 4th year, In reality, it appears that the NFL averages those 23 salaries over a 5 year period as a percentage of the salary cap for each of those 5 years, and then multiplies that average by the current cap. I'm not sure where I'd find all those numbers, and I'm not currently feeling all that mathematically inclined, but through the modern marvel called the internet and with credit given to <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25560358/agents-take-a-team-by-team-guide-to-fifth-year-option-decisions" target="_blank">cbssports</a>, I don't have to in order to share some information. If the information I found is correct, the cost of the 5th year option for Sylvester Williams for 2017 will be $6.757M if the Broncos choose to exercise that option. If they do, the money will be guaranteed for injury, but not for skill or cap considerations until the first day of the 2017 NFL League season, on or about March 8, 2017 when it would become fully guaranteed.</p>
<p>Now that the background information has been presented, it's time to consider the pros and conts of using the 5th year option on Sly. For purposes of determining the price of the 5th year option, transition tags, and franchise tags, the manner in which the NFL currently classifies player positions doesn't account for differences in roles, schemes, and teams. A DT is a DT, regardless of whether he's an interior pass rusher in a 4-3 D, a 2 gap space occupying mountain of a NT in a 3-4 D, or something in between. But I think we all have a clue that outside of the constraints imposed by franchise tags, transition tags, and 5th year options, different roles tend to get paid very different amounts of money.</p>
<p>I'm going to use some numbers from <a href="http://overthecap.com/position/3-4-defensive-tackle/" target="_blank">overthecap</a> to illustrate the point I'm trying to make. They show the more or less current top 5 average salaries for 3-4 DTS ranging from $3.75M (<span>Letroy Guion</span>) to $5M (<span>Jaye Howard</span>). The top 5 average salaries they show for 4-3 DTs range from $10M (<span>Kyle Williams</span>) to $19.06M (<span>Ndamukong Suh</span>).</p>
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<p>I originally thought that using the 5th year option for Sly was a no brainer, After all, he's a relatively young player in his prime years, and while I wouldn't describe him as a superstar, he's solid at what he does, and just had the best year of his career with Wade and Kollar coaching him. I also naively thought that the 5th year option was generally going to be a bargain for any decent 1st round player selected outside of the top 10. Looking at numbers has changed my tune. If the current highest average per year dollars for a 3-4 DT is $5M, $6.757M doesn't look like a bargain deal for Sly to me.</p>
<p>Maybe the Broncos would be better off to let him play out his current contract, and then consider trying to re-sign him to a competitive long term deal, or else replace him with a draft pick or a cheaper free agent, and hope for a future comp. pick.</p>
https://www.milehighreport.com/2016/4/25/11499648/sylvester-williams-contract-denver-broncosozark_orange2016-04-24T11:00:03-06:002016-04-24T11:00:03-06:00Brent Ostrichizer contracts, real & imaginary
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<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>We Denver Broncos fans will never forget Brent, or else we will. He might have become the 2nd or 3rd best franchise QB the Broncos ever had (we HAD Elway and Peyton, and they were awesome in their time), but it's more likely he wouldn't have (tough acts to follow). Anyway, I'm not writing this article to denigrate Brent, bury him (that's Von's job in prime time on October 24), or praise him. What actually inspired me to write this is comments and conversations about QBs in articles and threads here at MHR.</p>
<p>Obviously the Broncos' QB situation for 2016 and beyond is unsettled. Some people think a QB prospect like Lynch or Cook might be worth reaching for or even trading up for in the first round since potential franchise QB talent is hard to find, even if it requires development time. And those who think that way will often use the potential cost savings of the 5th year option for first round picks as further support for their thinking. I honestly don't know what the Broncos should do about our 2016 QB situation (good thing Elway and his people are way more QB savvy than I am). I've just been trying to answer a question for a few days, and decided to use Brent, his contracts, some numbers that are set in concrete, and some that aren't to try to find an answer, and I still don't have one.</p>
<p>My question is this: Does the cost savings of the 5th year option for a 1st round pick make it potentially worthwhile to "reach" for a QB in the mid-late first round who would otherwise be rated as a later pick?</p>
<h4><b>Real contract #1</b></h4>
<p>Brent was drafted with the 25th pick of the 2nd round of the 2012 NFL draft, #57 overall. Some Broncos fans were peeved about it at the time, considering it to be a "reach." Some probably still are. I thought it was about right. His 4 year rookie contract cost the Broncos a rounded $3.52M (numbers from <a target="_blank" href="http://overthecap.com/">overthecap</a>, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/denver-broncos/">spotrac</a>, and my $2 Dollar General calculator, as will be most the other numbers I'll use). So about $0.88M per year. Pretty darned reasonable price for a backup QB if you ask me.</p>
<h4><b>Real contract #2</b></h4>
<p>Brent signed a 4 year $72M contract ($18M per year average) with a $12M signing bonus and $37M in guaranteed money with the Houston Texans early in 2016 free agency. The guaranteed money includes the $12M signing bonus, a $5M 2016 roster bonus, a 2016 base salary of $4M, and a 2017 base salary of $16M. His 2016 cap hit for the Texans (his 5th year in the NFL) is $12M. His 2017 cap hit will be $19M. His 2018 cap hit will be $21M assuming the Texans keep him. His 2018 dead money will be $6M, so it would be $15M cheaper to release him than to keep him if he doesn't work out for them). His 2019 cap hit MIGHT be $20M with $3M in dead money if he gets released before a $4M roster bonus guarantees.</p>
<h5><b>My thoughts about real contract #2</b></h5>
<p>Not as dumb as I originally thought, especially in light of dumber things (IMO) some of the other teams have done so far in 2016 free agency. It's potentially a 2 year contract for $37M with potential dead money accounted for, so $18.5M per year average. Still seems on the high side to me based on his limited NFL track record, but not long term cap wrecking high.</p>
<h5><b>Moving on to the imaginary, hypothetical, what if stuff</b></h5>
<p>What if the Broncos had seriously reached for Brent with their original #25 pick in the 1st round of the 2012 draft (the Broncos wouldn't have had Wolfe, but that's another story)? That pick was used to select Donta Hightower whose 4 year rookie contract cost a rounded $7.37M. Brock's contract would have cost about the same since rookie contract numbers are determined by draft order, NOT by position played. As a late 1st round 2012 pick, he would have been eligible for the 5th year option for 2016, and it would have cost $10.611M (<a target="_blank" href="http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25140831/agents-take-a-guide-to-fifth-year-options-for-2012-first-round-picks">documenting and crediting source)</a>. So the Broncos could have theoretically had Brent on the roster for 5 years for a total of a rounded $17.98M. Of course they wouldn't have had Wolfe. Probably wouldn't have had Hillman either, but that's another story.</p>
<h5><b>Daggone it. Still haven't answered the original question</b></h5>
<p><b></b>Does the cost savings of the 5th year option for a 1st round pick make it potentially worthwhile to "reach" for a QB in the mid-late first round who would otherwise be rated as a later pick?</p>
<p>I can play with numbers some more, but don't know which numbers to play with. If the Broncos had drafted Brent at #25 in the 1st round (a full round reach), his 4 year rookie contract would have cost about $7.37M, His 5th year option would have resulted in a 5 year price of $17.98M. But they drafted him at #57, a full round later. So his 4 year rookie contract cost $3.52M. Don't know what to use for the hypothetical cost of the 5th year the Broncos didn't get from him though. If I use the 2016 cap hit of $12M the Texans have, his 5 year cost is $15.52M. If I use his $18M per year average for his new contract, his 5 year cost is $21.52M. If I consider his Texans' contract to be a 2 year deal for $18.5M average per year, his 5 year cost is $22.02M.</p>
<p>Think I'll go back to the hypothetical and imaginary scenario in which the Broncos drafted him at #25 in the first round, used the 5th year option, and had him on the roster for 5 years for a total cost of about $17.98M. So how much would he cost in 2017 and beyond?</p>
<h4><b>2017 and beyond hypothetical costs</b></h4>
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<p>Don't know. Just going to use average $ per year numbers for some young NFL QBs who got new contracts within the last couple of years, and might be considered to be franchise type of guys.</p>
<p><span>Russell Wilson</span>: $21.9M</p>
<p><span>Cam Newton</span>: $20.76M</p>
<p><span>Kirk Cousins</span>: $19.95M (franchise tag)</p>
<p><span>Ryan Tannehill</span>: $19.25M</p>
<p><span>Sam Bradford</span>: $17.5M</p>
<p><span>Andy Dalton</span>: $16M</p>
<p>Here's as close as I've come to a conclusion: It's kind of what I thought to start with, so naturally I'm going to let my inconclusive information support my original opinion. I don't think it makes sense to allow the potential "savings" afforded by the 5th year option to sway a team to make a big "reach" on a QB in the draft. The team might not end up saving all that much is cash or cap space, and the "reach" might cost them the opportunity to draft another talent like Wolfe. It might be worth considering with a lesser "reach" though, especially since potential franchise QBs are desirable and scarce commodities.</p>
https://www.milehighreport.com/2016/4/24/11496500/brock-osweiler-contracts-real-imaginaryozark_orange